The “Black Swan Principle” and the Genetics of Complex Diseases

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Published
January 13, 2024
Title
The “Black Swan Principle” and the Genetics of Complex Diseases
Authors
Giuseppe Novelli, Juergen K V Reichardt
DOI
10.62684/YEWJ9912
Keywords
Black Swan Principle; Genetics of Complex Diseases
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Giuseppe Novelli(a), Juergen K V Reichardt(b)

(a)Department of Biomedicine and Prevention, School of Medicine and Surgery, Tor Vergata University of Rome, Via Montpellier 1, 00133, Rome, Italy and Department of Pharmacology, School of Medicine, University of Nevada, 89557, Reno, NV, USA.

(b)Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Smithfield, QLD, 4878, Australia.

Correspondence to: novelli@med.uniroma2.it

Abstract

The black swan principle is a philosophy theory created by Nassim Nicholas Taleb that seeks to explain rare and unpredictable events, appearances that seem to defy logic or rational explanation. These events, termed "Black Swans," have been observed in various domains, including finance, public administration, infectious diseases, and ecology. The concept of Black Swans has gained recently, significant attention in academia and practice due to its relevance in understanding extreme and rare occurrences. The “black swan” concept has been used in genetics for the unexpected developments that genome sequencing would reveal and which could have consequences for healthcare systems (e.g., increase in often unnecessary and inappropriate diagnostic investigations, increase in non-patients, etc.).

Declarations

Acknowledgements

The studies of G.N. on complex diseases are supported by grants of HORIZON-HLTH-2021-DISEASE-04 program under grant agreement 01057100 (UNDINE) and HEAL ITALIA Health Extended ALliance for Innovative Therapies, Advanced Lab-research, and Integrated Approaches of Precision Medicine, PNRR MUR, Mission 4 Component 2.

Conflict of Interest

The Authors declare that there is no conflict of interest.

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