Policy lessons from the Italian pandemic of Covid-19

From Top Italian Scientists Journal
Published
September 4, 2024
Title
Policy lessons from the Italian pandemic of Covid-19
Authors
José M. Carcione, Jing Ba
DOI
10.62684/NZFA6144
Keywords
Policy lessons; Italian pandemic; COVID-19.
Downloads
Download PDF
Download PDF

José M. Carcione(a), Jing Ba(b)(c)

(a) National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics – OGS, Trieste, Italy.

(b) School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China

(c) Corresponding author. jba@hhu.edu.cn

Abstract

We analyze the management of the Italian pandemic during the five identified waves. We considered the following problems: (i) The composition of the CTS ("Scientific Technical Committee"), which was composed entirely of doctors, mainly virologists, without mathematical epidemiologists, statisticians, physicists, etc. In fact, a pandemic has a behavior described by mathematical, stochastic and probabilistic criteria; (ii) Political interference in security measures and media propaganda; (iii) The initial stages of the vaccination campaign, ignoring the age factor, and (iv) The persistence of the pandemic due to the population unvaccinated (anti-vax or "no-vax"), which amounted to about six to seven million people, including 10% of anti-vax doctors.

Declarations

Conflict of Interest

The Authors declare that there is no conflict of interest.

References

  1. Brannen, S., and Hicks, K. (2020). We predicted a coronavirus pandemic. Here's what policymakers could have seen coming, Politico, 3/VII/2020.
  2. Brauer, F. (2017). Mathematical epidemiology: Past, present, and future, Infect. Dis. Model., 2(2), 113-127.
  3. Callaghan, T., Washburn, D., Goidel, K., Nuzhath, T., Spiegelman, A., Scobee, J., Moghtaderi, A., and Motta, M. (2022). Imperfect messengers? An analysis of vaccine confidence among primary care physicians, Vaccine, 40(18), 2588-2603.
  4. Carcione, J. M. (2022). Wave fields in real media. Theory and numerical simulation of wave propagation in anisotropic, anelastic, porous and electromagnetic media, 4th edition, Elsevier.
  5. Carcione, J. M., Santos, J. E., Bagaini, C., Ba, J. (2020). A simulation of a COVID-19 epidemic based on a deterministic SEIR model, Frontiers in Public Health, 8, Article 230. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2020.00230.
  6. Cucinotta, D., and Vanelli, M. (2020). WHO declares COVID-19 a pandemic, Acta Biomedica, Atenei Parmensis, 91(1), 157-160.
  7. Faranda, D., Alberti, T., Arutkin, M., Lembo, V., Lucarini, V. (2021). Interrupting vaccination policies can greatly spread SARS-CoV-2 and enhance mortality from COVID-19 disease: The AstraZeneca case for France and Italy, Chaos 31, 041105 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0050887.
  8. Gallegos, M., de Castro Pecanha, V., and Caycho-Rodríguez, T. (2022). Anti-vax: The history of a scientific problem, Journal of Public Health, fdac048, https://doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdac048
  9. Isonne, C., De Blasiis, M. R., Turatto, F., Mazzalai, E., Marzuillo, C., De Vito, C., Villari, P., and Baccolini, V. (2022) What went wrong with the IMMUNI contact-tracing app in Italy? A cross-sectional survey on the attitudes and experiences among healthcare university students, Life, 12, 871. https://doi.org/10.3390/life12060871
  10. Kapucu, N., and Moynihan, D. (2021). Trump's (mis)management of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US, Policy Studies, https://doi.org/10.1080/01442872.2021.1931671
  11. Lesschaeve, C., Glaurdié, J., and Mochtak, M. (2021). Health versus wealth during the Covid-19 pandemic: Saving lives or saving the economy? Public Opinion Quarterly, 85(3), 808-835.
  12. Morozova, O., Li, Z. R., and Crawford, F. W. (2021). One year of modeling and forecasting COVID-19 transmission to support policymakers in Connecticut, Scientific Reports, 11, 20271.
  13. O'Driscoll, M., Ribeiro Dos Santos, G., Wang, L., Cummings, D. A. T., Azman, A. S., Paireau, J., Fontanet, A., Cauchemez, S., and Henrik, S. (2021), Age-specific mortality and immunity patterns of SARS-CoV-2, Nature, 590, 140-145.
  14. Pistoi, S., 2021, Examining the role of the Italian COVID-19 scientific committee, Nature, https://www.nature.com/articles/d43978-021-00015-8
  15. Waheed, S. M., Kudaravalli, P., and Hotwagner, D. T. (2022). Deep vein thrombosis, StatPearls.
Retrieved from ‘https://journal.topitalianscientists.org/index.php?title=Policy_lessons_from_the_Italian_pandemic_of_Covid-19&oldid=1536’